Before you go filling out those Brackets...

If you want to talk about great runs in the NCAA tournament, most people are going to say Villanova winning as an eight in 1985, Arizona knocking off three one seeds in 1997 or Cinderella teams like LSU in 1986 and George Mason last year, ending up in the Final Four. Not for this guy. For me, the biggest and best tournament run I have and will ever see was in 2004… it was my own. That year I called six of the Elite Eight and had a perfect Final Four en route to demolishing my boys and their brackets for the first of two near perfect bracket years. Granted, I had to wade through a number of bad years in order to learn how to pick an Elite group of teams, but the truth of the matter is, picking a winning bracket isn’t all that hard. All you have to do is watch the conference tournaments, listen to SportsCenter, do some research and when all else fails, go with your gut. I shouldn’t do this incase anyone actually reads this thing, but here are my secrets to picking the perfect Final Four, impressing those around you and taking their money while you do. Money that smells like shame… delicious. Anyway, here we go.

First off, cut local ties early. Unless you are an alum of or live in a city or state with a top 3 seed, drop your team as soon as you can. That isn’t saying that a five, six, or even an eight seed isn’t going to make a run, because they can, but only every so often. Even if they do, the teams that sneak into the Final Four get promptly bounced after a solid week of will they/won’t they talk on all 27 ESPN channels. If that happens you probably won’t mind losing ten dollars in an office pool and you’ll probably spend another ten on a final four shirt you’ll wear every Saturday until the day you die.
Now, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t have a sense of hometown pride, it just means that you need to understand when enough is enough. For thirteen through sixteen seeds, that time is now. For me, it means realizing that Arizona probably isn’t strong enough – which is to say big enough – to fend off a very good Florida team. In 2005, a really solid year for Arizona basketball, I chose Illinois to beat Arizona in the Elite Eight, a choice that killed me almost as much as watching Illinois beat Arizona in the Elite Eight. Nothing can kill your bracket quicker than the blind love for a hometown team that isn’t as good as your local news is telling you. Just ask everyone who goes to Cincinnati.

Next, don’t be a hero. Unless you were actually a student at George Mason last year, you probably didn’t have them going all the way to the Final Four. Making big calls on small and mid-major teams will probably impress your friends if they actually hit, but you’re far worse off being scrutinized for dumb moves. I know hindsight is 20/20, but make smart moves and take chances where you actually think chances will pay off. Last year, I loved Gerry McNamara’s conference tournament more than anyone, but you knew after seeing Syracuse expel all their energy playing solid Big East teams they would come in weak against a surging and excited Bradley team. I went against my judgment and my boy McMoney (copyright Fatz 2004) and ended up picking Bradley for the upset.
Like Bradley, most big runs by small teams usually end in the Sweet Sixteen. Teams that upset in the first round can carry the emotion and energy from a Thursday/Friday game all the way through the first weekend, but after that the team has a solid week to over think their next game while they wait for their sweet sixteen opponent … usually a power team from a power conference. That week also gives the power team time to gather game tapes, find out how to beat them, and adjust for the coming game.
Still, since the first weekend is usually the one that makes or breaks a bracket, you have to make sure to take some chances and pick some upsets. Pick a number of them if you have to, just not too many. Know that there will usually a twelve beating a five – there has been for the past six years – and remember that a sixteen has never beaten a one seed. For the eight-nine games, pick the standard big schools with bad years that get relegated to this spot, specifically Arizona, Kentucky, and Marquette this year. Outside of those games, the danger seeds this year for the first couple rounds include Holy Cross (13), Louisville (6), Marquette (8), George Washington (11), and possibly Winthrop (11).
Another big stat everyone will throw out there is that the top four seeds have never made it to the Final Four together, although they were really close in ’97 and ’99. Similar to small teams getting knocked out in the round of sixteen, this is when you’ll start to see cocky top seeds start to fall after a week of thinking they’re the kings of the court. Duke proved this in ’02 when a “can’t miss” team ran into some bad luck against an overrated Indiana team on a hot streak. Make sure you have a couple teams outside the one seeds, probably twos or threes. Unless you know something that Dick Vitale doesn’t, don’t have your champion be anything higher than a four.

On top of all this…CHECK THE STATS! If there is a really close game and you can’t seem to decide on a winner, there are three really important stats that you need to look at. First of all rebounds, specifically on the offensive side. Rebounds mean possessions and offensive rebounds mean second chance points. The team that rebounds will have more possessions, will take more shots, and more often then not will score more points. As John Madden says, “The team with more points is probably going to end up winning the game.” Obviously when comparing this stat, well-fed teams like Ohio St. and Georgetown tend to dominate the boards against much smaller teams. On the offensive side, there is nothing more uplifting than getting another look at the basket, spotting up for a three and widening the gap between you and your opponent.
Speaking of threes, anyone who watches college basketball knows that the three line is way (way, way, way) too close. Teams with three point threats absolutely dominate when they get hot, case in point, the unlikely run for Kevin Pittsnogle and West Virginia to the Elite Eight in ‘05 and Illinois’ impressive fourteen point comeback over Arizona the same weekend. For that reason, check out how the team and their starting five shoot threes and have that be a BIG factor when picking between two tough teams.
Lastly, blocked shots help keep opponents scores low, help keep scared point guards on the perimeter, and help kick off fast break scores at the other end. Offense may fill seats, but defense wins championships. Steals are important and not to be overlooked, but the inside presence that a blocking center provides can force a team who likes driving to take outside jumpers. Solid blocking teams this year are Kansas, who averages one block for every five defensive possessions, and Ohio St., who has Greg Oden (‘nough said).
If you don’t believe me, check out Georgia Tech’s run to the championship game in 2004. They were in an overrated region that included top overall seed Kentucky, Kansas, Gonzaga, and strong but young Boston College. If you look at their stats, including those listed above, you’ll see that they should have been far and away the favorite in that region. They might have gotten a little help from UAB and Nevada, but overall, these stats are what separate the Final Four from the other sixty-one teams watching at home. Trust me.

Finally, there are a number of X-Factors to keep in mind when filling out your bracket and picking your teams. I will list them so they’re easy and accessible when going back and forth between this page and your ESPN bracket.

1. Never pick a five to win it all. They are the most often high seed to be upset in the first round and have never, ever won the tournament.

2. Beware the whitewash (copyright Bill Simmons 2004). Good teams that successfully field five white guys in their first eight never go to the Final Four. With that said, watch out for Wisconsin.

3. Make sure at least three of your Final Four have a big name player. Oden, Noah, Wright, Green, Hibbert, and Hansborough. There is a reason they are household names, they are good players on good teams.

4. Watch the freshman on your teams. Can they handle the stress of being put on the free-throw line with a one-point lead and twenty seconds to go? If not, watch out.

5. Speaking of Freshman, Kevin Durant CANNOT carry Texas all the way. No matter what ESPN is saying every second of every day, trust me. He doesn’t have the supporting cast.


With that said, have fun, drink a lot, and watch more basketball than your significant other thinks is healthy for your relationship. I’m personally taking Thursday and Friday off work to watch with my boys at the Tacuba house, but I’ll be keeping a running diary as the games are going and post each night.

May your brackets be healthy and your TV be large. Enjoy.

- Kitchen