O.J.? Oh no...

I'm angry with O.J. Mayo. Not because he's a punk who knocked down a referee during a high school game. Not because he's an arrogant, show boating, pot smoking high school basketball player straight out of "Above the Rim". Not even because his name is Ovinton J'Anthony - which is more of a reason to be angry with his parents. Instead, I'm angry because everyone still loves him. Why? After a 4 for 17 shooting night accompanied by a single rebound and a blown game winning three, the talk on ESPN isn't that MVP Michael Beasley looks ready to make a difference at Kansas State or that Gani Lawal could elevate Georgia Tech back to a Final Four team. Instead the story is O.J. Mayo and he couldn't be happier. It just goes to show you that no publicity is bad publicity.

When Mayo chose to attend USC, it was to the surprise of the media, his teammates, major college basketball programs, and USC coach Tim Floyd… who never actually sent him a recruitment letter. Can you blame him? Floyd is a basketball coach at a football school and is best known for leading the post Jordan bulls to a 15-67 record. What does he have to offer a top three talent? Well, nothing, he's Tim Floyd... but Southern Cal’s campus exists in the epicenter of Los Angeles, a city that loves its sports teams almost as much as it loves its trendy fashion, pretentious music, and vegan diets. By landing himself in L.A. Mayo has made the choice to look past college and begin marketing himself to the NBA crowd. He's made sure that he won’t be just another face that has passed through the halls of great programs like Duke, North Carolina, or even rival UCLA; instead he will BE Trojan basketball... so long as he's not a bust.

If you’re asking if this is a smart move, just look at Matt Leinart. He may work in Arizona, but for the four years prior to becoming an NFL quarterback, he was the golden boy of Los Angeles. He dated stars and showed up in magazines. He was on billboards, commercials, and even did an episode of Desperate Housewives. People in Los Angeles are still talking about getting an NFL team just to bring Leinart back so he can lead them to a Superbowl. The problem with this train of thought is that Leinart is a Heisman trophy winner who led his team to a national championship. O.J. Mayo hasn't done anything. Leinart had Bush, White, a better offensive line then the Arizona Cardinals and a great defense. Mayo has eight guys who play the same position he does. Even worse, Mayo is probably heading to the NBA the first chance he gets, which won't sit well with the USC faithful. That doesn't matter much to Mayo though. He's proven over the last year, and especially in last night's game, that all he cares about is himself.


Aside from Mayo, the McDonald's All-American game didn't disappoint. There were dunks and deep threes, a lot of talent and a lot of sheer athletic ability. Watching the game last night I was genuinely excited for the future of college basketball and thankful that these guys are forced to actually play there. Here's a break down of the standouts from last night:

O.J. Mayo (USC) - Needless to say, not impressive. He scored 12 points and had a rebound. I don't think he had any assists since that would require him passing, but I didn't check. He's athletic, fast and has a great build but he was overly selfish and took bad and unnecessary shots. He also could have tied it up in a 3 on 1 situation, but chose to jack up an errant three and lose the game. While he has shown that he can dominate against 10 awkward white guys from West Virginia, its a little different going against the caliber players that get chosen as All-Americans. If I’m wrong I’ll admit it. I guess we’ll have to see.

Nick Calathes (Florida) - Smart basketball player, great team player and great shooter. He has good range for his size but his size is the problem. He's weak and has to force up an awkward three point shot. The upside is that he's really good looking and every girl in America will want to make relations with him. If Billy Donovan stays in Florida, I like this kids chances in developing to a really great player.

Gani Lawal (Georgia Tech) - Powerful dunker and a great rebounder. He's perfect for Georgia Tech and would have helped them shut down Wendell White and destroy UNLV. He's strong enough to play in the NBA but not mature enough. Wait until he gets two or three years under his belt.

Kevin Love (UCLA) - Slow, strong, and boring. Rebounds well and follows really well. Good footwork and great fundamentals. Again though... slow and boring. By the way, these are all words I would have used to describe Tim Duncan in college. I hate the fact that he's playing at UCLA mostly because Arizona hasn't had an inside presence ever and I'm not looking forward to a couple more years of getting our asses kicked.

Michael Beasley (Kansas State) - One reporter called him Michael "Beastly", and while I don't appreciate the pun, it's quite an accurate description. The guy is big and strong, can shoot outside and can post up inside. He rebounds and he's not a bad passer. He scored 23 points and brought home the MVP. He also went to Oak Hill, the best basketball high school in the country. Downside? He's apparently very lazy in practice and can mail in games every so often. Bob Huggins at Kansas State will take care of that pretty quickly. Seriously, watch out for this kid.

Taylor King (Duke) - Not much to say about him because he wasn't featured much in the game. All I can say is that I'm convinced he could shoot 40% from the half court line. His range is beyond any high school kid I've seen. I'm always excited to see a kid like this go to Duke and learn how to play under Coach K. Perfect situation.

Kosta Koufos (Ohio State) - If Ohio State holds on to Oden and Conley and adds a kid like Koufos, then you should probably just write them into your bracket now. He's 7'1" and can shoot from deep much like Dirk, Bargnani, or Okur. He's slow and can't really drive, but once he's inside he can clean up after errant shots very well. Plus his name is Kosta and he smiles like the foreign kid from Can't Hardly Wait. What's not to love?

Jerryd Bayless (Arizona) - Love him. Couldn't be happier with the new Wildcat. Smart player, excellent at the drive and dish, athletic, great shot, has deep range and isn't afraid to take shots. His defense was also much of the reason O.J. Mayo was ineffective yesterday. Much like current Arizona phenom Marcus Williams, he's way too thin right now. He also isn't that impressive at running the point, but he works with Mike Bibby in the off season and will hopefully end his career with a similar result, National Champion.

I'm a bit giddy right now... Enjoy the Final Four.

For the Love of the Game...

The NCAA Men’s Basketball page says it all. They had the right team winning but the wrong score and the wrong team’s picture. Then, the right score, but the wrong team winning. Finally, they got it right. I guess that’s better than ESPN, CBS, and Yahoo! none of which are running the story at all. It seems without a name like Greg Oden or Kevin Durant, it’s hard to make a case for front-page news, but with that said I just watched the most exhilarating ending to any college game I’ve seen since Laettner hit the game winner against Kentucky in ‘92.

Did it involve Kansas or UCLA? No. Was it Ohio State against Memphis? Not in the least. It was the Division II Championship between the Barton Bulldogs and the undefeated Winona State Warriors. Winona hadn’t lost since January… that is January of 2006. They weren’t about to start a losing streak against a team like Barton who overachieved all season. Not against a team they beat in the Elite Eight on their way to the 2006 championship. Not a little team from a little college like Barton.

With 39 seconds to go and Barton down 74-69, time was running out and legs for both teams were getting tired. After working for twenty minutes to hold on to a ten-point halftime lead it seemed like Winona State would be the first team to repeat as Division II champions in over 10 years. If Barton was going to win, they were forced to rely on 5’10” PG Anthony Atkinson, a young man who had already hit a game winning three at the buzzer and a pair of game winning free throws to take down two giants of Division II basketball earlier in the week. Did he have one more left in him?

Atkinson didn’t even look at his teammates as he came down the floor. Instead he found a small opening and sprinted towards the basket, forcing the defense to take a step back. This gave him just enough space to stop and hit a five-foot pull up jumper to pull within three. Then Barton caught Winona off guard as Quincy Henderson stole the inbounds pass and quickly dished it back to Atkinson for a lay-up and a foul. The pressure was heavy though, as Atkinson missed the free throw, 74-73. After the miss, Barton was forced to foul quickly and put Winona State’s Jonte Flowers on the line for two shots. He returned the favor by missing the front end, but made the second to put his team up by two.

With 19 seconds left Atkinson still wasn’t concerned. He walked the ball up to half court and then ran right past the defense again, scoring on an impressive reverse lay-up to tie up the game at 75-75. With 11 seconds left, there was still plenty of time for Winona State to get off a shot, but guard Zach Malvik could only make it to half court before having his pocket picked clean by Bobby Buffaloe with 4 seconds left. Atkinson saw this and quickly took off towards the basket, receiving the pass from Buffaloe with 3 seconds… 2 seconds. He didn’t have enough time to make it back to the hoop, but somehow he did and with exactly 0.1 seconds left, the ball left his hand and his game winning lay-up dropped through the hoop. Game over. 77-75 Barton Bulldogs.

You won’t see Atkinson in the NBA and you won’t see Buffaloe’s steal on the cover of Sports Illustrated. You probably won’t see Malvik with his head buried in his jersey on ESPN, and it’s truly a shame, because you won’t see a better end to an NCAA game this season. You probably didn’t even see this one. It just goes to show you, there are still guys out there who play basketball knowing that they'll never make a million dollars. They simply love the game.

See It Here.

A German MVP? Can't be worse than a Canadian...

For most of the NBA season the MVP has been a race between two-time award winner Steve Nash and the dirty German Dirk Nowitzki. Nash started as the clear favorite for a three-peat until Dirk and the Mavs tore up the league for a three-month stretch that included a 52-5 record and three 12+ game winning streaks. Nash stormed back last week by single handedly beating Dirty D and the Dallas Three in a 2OT thriller as Dirk lost the game, his composure, and possibly the MVP by blowing two late free throws. So who is the MVP this year? Well that depends on your interpretation of the award. Some say it's the player his team simply can't win without, others say it's the best player on the best team, and a few would even say it should go to the most talented player in the league. So instead of everyone fighting over a single acronym, I've taken the liberty myself of handing out multiple awards based on each player's own effect on his team and the league.

B.O.P. - (Best on Planet) - To Kobe Bryant who is far and away the most talented player - which is to say - pure scorer alive today. He might be the best one-on-one player the league has ever seen and can make any given shot on any given night. He's also one of the leagues most underrated shut down defenders. The problem? Kobe isn't even the MVP of his own team. Lamar Odom is a better passer, rebounder, and all around team player than Kobe. When he gets hot he can score 25-30 points any night. In fact, the Lakers have been without Odom in 14 of the Lakers 32 losses this season. Without Kobe, they're 3-2 including a win against Phoenix where Odom tallied 34 points, 10 rebounds, and 6 assists. Oh, and Kobe travels… a lot. Probably has something to do with it.

M.I.P. - (Most Important Player) - To Shaquille O'Neal who at 35 years old doesn't show up for half the season, doesn't lead his team in any category, probably doesn't practice, can't shoot free throws, and puts on 30 pounds each off season. Still, he could be the cornerstone of any championship team. His inside presence, size, and strength on both sides of the ball make him a factor every second he's on the floor. What's worse is that he plays good, smart defense, so it's hard to get him into foul trouble. Add all this to his charm and personality and you've got probably one of the most important players in the history of the league.

B.P.C.B. - (Best Player/Crazy Bastard) - To Gilbert Arenas. He may score 30 a night and be one of the best second round pick-ups in recent years... he's also just a crazy bastard. He yells "hibachi" when shooting threes, wears shorts of the opposing team to bed, thinks everyone is out to get him and tried to stop a cop from arresting his friend by running over the cop. Still he's a good player and a good interview... I'd just rather not be in the same room as him.

B.P.B.T. - (Best Player, Best Team) - To Dirk Nowitzki. There's no doubt that Dirk owns the title… at least this year. He averages 25 points and 10 rebounds. He shoots over 50% from the field, 40% from three, and 90% from the line and has yet to him miss from the elbow this season. Even with how talented he is though, without a 79-point performance by Jerry Stackhouse, Jason Terry and Josh Howard, the Suns would have trampled the Mavericks. In fact, in the three games this season where he played 10 minutes or less, the Mavs won all three in convincing fashion. Dallas is so deep and talented that they don't need Dirk to win, they're just that much better when he's on the floor.

M.V.P. - (Most Valuable Player) - To Steve Nash. Sure the last two years have been a good barometer, but this season he's even better - especially that hair cut (sexy sexy). Take the game in Dallas where he scored 32 points and handed out 16 assists. If we assume all his assists lead to 2-point baskets - which they don't - he was personally responsible for 64 points in Dallas, 66 against Washington, and 68 in New Jersey earlier this year. On two of his lowest scoring nights this year he had over 20 assists, so even when he's having an off night, he's smart enough and humble enough to defer and create baskets for his teammates. Phoenix is 2-4 without him this year and 4-12 without him over the last three seasons. This coming from a team averaging 60+ wins a season during that same span. They may have survived much of last year without Barbosa or Stoudemire, but Phoenix has proven this season, that they can't go a week without Nash.

To be honest, I'm just glad sportswriters vote on these awards and not the fans. I don't know if I could take Yao Ming winning his 5th straight MVP award after another long stint on the injured list.

Now that's more like it!

Before I do anything else, I need to proclaim publicly that I am right now officially standing on the UNLV bandwagon... and it is lonely. So, in the words of Jerry Maguire, who’s coming with me? Come on, they out rebounded a much larger Georgia Tech team, beat a two seed in Wisconsin, they’ve averaging nine threes a game, and every single one of them can hit clutch free throws. Who’s coming with me? Want more, how about the fact that they’re facing an Oregon team that has beat two double-digit seeds and hasn’t done so very convincingly. That Kevin Kruger is playing 36 minutes a game and looks like a young Steve Nash. That Wendell White can’t be stopped! Come on! Who’s coming with me? Let’s do this thing! Go Runnin’ Rebels! On to the games…

The tournament was a lot better to watch this weekend, especially a tense Saturday that started off with me writing, but not sending a text to a friend stating clearly “Ohio State just lost” and ended with both Vandy and Pitt winning in OT. The lesson as always, it ain’t over until it’s over. I wonder what it’s like to have roughly ten million people who have never seen you play or cared about you in any capacity, suddenly ripping their hair out because you’re losing. I’d say that’s just about the definition of pressure.
Also, a lot has been made about Greg Oden’s foul at the end of regulation, that it should have been called intentional or flagrant, thus giving Xavier the ball after the free throws. I’ve seen the replay time and time again and it still looks like he’s going for the ball and just got a little aggressive in a tense situation. A ref can’t make that call so late in the game because he would be deciding the outcome. It needs to be decided by the guys on the floor, and it was. Xavier’s Justin Cage who got fouled thought it was the right call. He missed the free throw. Ron Lewis hits the three. Game over. End of discussion.
Important question though. Is this a wake up game for Ohio St. like UCLA beating Missouri on a buzzer beater in ‘95, or is it a statement game telling us that they might not be as good as we think? The same can be asked of Florida, who struggled against Purdue and committed 15 turnovers, 12 of which were steals that might expose some ball control issues. The competition is getting tougher now and the lower seeds are gunning to be the first to knock off a one seed. Who will be the first to plummet?

Speaking of plummeting, where was Texas on Sunday? More importantly, where was their coach Rick Barnes? Kevin Durant is the player of the year, no question about that, but its very hard for a freshman to take a team on his back and carry them to the championship. He needs his coach to calm him down and COACH him and the other guys what to do. The problem was that Texas got down early, got scared and just started jacking threes trying to get back in the game, leading to long rebounds and fast breaks for USC, leading to a larger deficit and more threes by Texas. All the while Barnes had his head buried in his hands, unable to right the ship because he had no answer for an overrated USC team that played well, played calm, took the ball the basket and had a little luck on their side.
I hope Kevin Durant stays one more year, because if he puts on some weight and works on his defense, he could be one of the best college players in 30 years, and more than just a pure scorer. Not likely though since Celtics GM Danny Ainge is probably joining the family for Easter Brunch next month.

After picking both Nevada and Texas to win, I’m down to 12 teams left, which isn’t bad. I still like Kansas after a good win against Kentucky. Florida will bounce back and North Carolina seemed unfazed against Michigan St. Vandy, UCLA, and Oregon are the weak links, but have played well enough so far. Even so, I think we all know UNLV is taking it all the way this year. Once again, I’m an idiot.

March... not so Madness

So how are your brackets looking? If you like to see upsets and you picked some big ones, like 12 and 13 seeds advancing, then they’re probably not looking too good. If you’re one of those who doesn’t usually watch the tournament and figures the best team usually wins, then you’re feeling pretty confident right now. Watch out though, that means that second round games are going to be a lot more competitive then in previous years. Lower seeds don’t get the luxury of playing an upset team with an over inflated “maybe we CAN win this thing” mentality. Now they’re forced to play strong high seeds that escaped the first round with and have new life after that sigh of relief they get from making it past day one. While low scores and large margins of victory made for a pretty uninteresting first round, the overall tournament might benefit from the competition we should see throughout the next couple weeks.

Some notes:
The second round brings some interesting match-ups because a couple of the teams facing off are complete opposites of one another. VCU, a quick and athletic team that surprised no one by upsetting Duke, is playing a slow and methodical Pittsburgh team. Same with Rick Pitino’s run and gun Louisville, who started the tournament by dismantling and embarrassing a weak Stanford team. They get to face a slow and strong defensive team in Texas A&M. A&M also brings with them the clutch stylings of Acie Law, IV who single handedly keeps them in close games late. Usually, the team that gets to dictate the tempo of the game will be the one who comes away with the win, and for that reason, I like Pitt and A&M. Don’t be surprised though, if the faster teams can take over and wear out the defenses quickly by turning the game into a track meet.

Some games to watch:
Winthrop, who beat Notre Dame, now gets to take on a deflated Oregon team – whom I have in the Final Four – that snuck by Miami (OH) after they missed a three at the buzzer. UNLV, who somehow held off a big run from Georgia Tech, gets to play a Wisconsin team that looked TERRIBLE against Texas A&M – Corpus Christi. Both Vandy and Wazzou played well in their opening game and face each other in a tight 6 vs. 3 match up. Same with Texas and USC in their 5 vs. 4 game.

Teams I Like:
Maryland - Balanced and fun to watch. They have a harder game coming up against Butler, but I think their team play along with how strong they were inside will make that game a lot easier for them. Watch for Osby off the bench, great hustle player and great afro. Look for someone to call him Baby Ben by the end of this tournament.

UNLV - Smart and can shoot outside better then most teams in this tournament. They have a veteran leader in Kevin Kruger – who looks like a young Will Forte – and Wendell White can take over a game whenever he wants. Look for them to upset Wisconsin.

Teams I Hate:
Tennessee - Fast and athletic but EXTREMELY careless. They’re cocky after running past Long Beach and now face a Virginia team that won the ACC regular season. Plus they wear those terrible burnt orange uniforms… oh and Bruce Pearl is an idiot.

Memphis - Won 30 games in Conference USA, which is about the equivalent of Iverson averaging 80 a game in the WNBA. They lost all their best players to the NBA and are facing a good Nevada team that forces people to focus on Nick Fazekas and forget about the balance they have with Marcelus Kemp, Ramon Sessions and Kyle Shiloh.

Whatever happens, this could be a very exciting tournament from here on out. We still have a couple mid-majors that could make serious runs in Winthrop and VCU, and yet we have such an amazing amount of talent out on the floor that anyone could win. I still like Kansas, and I wish I had Florida going farther – thought they were overrated… whoops – but don’t be surprised if we see some smaller schools knock out some 1, 2, and 3 seeds this weekend.

Finally I’d like to thank Boston College, UNLV, and USC for playing so well against their first round opponents (read: covering the spread). Remember everyone, betting on sports is only wrong when you lose. Enjoy the games.

Villain, thy name is Dallas...

What a game. At the end of the 129-127 double OT thriller between the Phoenix Suns (AKA Reasons why I drink) and the Dallas Mavericks, I wasn’t happy, I wasn’t jumping up and down, I wasn’t even smiling. I was just happy the game was over. Probably not what you’re looking for from a die-hard Phoenix fan after such an exciting game, but over the last three years, its what I’ve come to expect. The Phoenix Suns have been the biggest rollercoaster in sports lately, winning and losing in bunches, thankfully doing the former more often than the latter. They’re a team that can score at will and yet couldn’t keep a Jr. High girls basketball team under a hundred points. Still I love them, even though they’ve broken my heart every one of the 17 seasons I’ve watched them. Last night wasn’t one of those times. Some notes from the game if you missed it.

The Suns go up 16 in the second quarter and then are down 15 at the end of the third only to have Steve Nash tie it with a three and 2.7 seconds left. See what I mean by rollercoaster. There are many times where I would simply leave the room or turn on the TV for a few seconds at a time because I just couldn't bare to watch.

Dallas is still the strongest team in the league, even after losing 2 straight. Last night their starters combined for over 100 points including 3 guys over 20 points and one hanging around at 19. When coupled with how strong Avery Johnson has made that defense, they’re still the best team in the league by leaps and bounds. Translation: I hate them.

Steve Nash won the MVP last night. Dirk may be the best player on the best team and he may have had a great night scoring 30, grabbing 16 rebounds, and handing out 6 assists. Doesn’t matter. Steve Nash handed out 14 assists in regulation, and then when Phoenix was down 7 points with a minute to go, he took the ball and scored 10 straight points including a that three with 2.7 seconds left to force overtime. The best part? He did the same thing in Dallas last year during the playoffs. Amazing.

Boris Diaw’s new nickname is “Married Life”. Ever since signing a five-year contract worth 45 million dollars, he’s let himself go, stopped trying to please you, put on a significant amount of weight, and can’t perform because he has a headache. (Okay, its actually back spasms, but it worked for the analogy). The worst part is, the Suns couldn’t dump him at the trading deadline because his contract doesn’t kick in until next year and we can't kill him because... no wait... let me think about that one.

Sarcastic Rant: Everybody keeps saying that Dallas and Phoenix are a lock to meet in the Western Conference Finals. Good job ESPN. That probably won’t piss off the Spurs, a team that is still in its prime and has won 13 straight. You’re right, they needed another reason to feel unappreciated. No, no, I’m glad because they’ll probably just lay down and stop trying. In fact, I WANT to face them in the second round. Screw it, we’ll kill them because you’ve crushed their spirit…. And Scene.

I know we talk about how bad the east is, but do you think any of the top three Western teams would even lose a game in the finals this year? Not only are these the best teams we’ve seen since the Jordan era, but the Suns, Mavs, and Spurs have lost a COMBINED 14 games against the east, with the Suns only losing one on the road. Can’t we finally do away with the Regional Conferences and mix it up so it’s at least interesting? Reason #397 why I incorrectly think I would make a great NBA commissioner.

18 games to go… the NBA, it’s Fantastic!

Before you go filling out those Brackets...

If you want to talk about great runs in the NCAA tournament, most people are going to say Villanova winning as an eight in 1985, Arizona knocking off three one seeds in 1997 or Cinderella teams like LSU in 1986 and George Mason last year, ending up in the Final Four. Not for this guy. For me, the biggest and best tournament run I have and will ever see was in 2004… it was my own. That year I called six of the Elite Eight and had a perfect Final Four en route to demolishing my boys and their brackets for the first of two near perfect bracket years. Granted, I had to wade through a number of bad years in order to learn how to pick an Elite group of teams, but the truth of the matter is, picking a winning bracket isn’t all that hard. All you have to do is watch the conference tournaments, listen to SportsCenter, do some research and when all else fails, go with your gut. I shouldn’t do this incase anyone actually reads this thing, but here are my secrets to picking the perfect Final Four, impressing those around you and taking their money while you do. Money that smells like shame… delicious. Anyway, here we go.

First off, cut local ties early. Unless you are an alum of or live in a city or state with a top 3 seed, drop your team as soon as you can. That isn’t saying that a five, six, or even an eight seed isn’t going to make a run, because they can, but only every so often. Even if they do, the teams that sneak into the Final Four get promptly bounced after a solid week of will they/won’t they talk on all 27 ESPN channels. If that happens you probably won’t mind losing ten dollars in an office pool and you’ll probably spend another ten on a final four shirt you’ll wear every Saturday until the day you die.
Now, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t have a sense of hometown pride, it just means that you need to understand when enough is enough. For thirteen through sixteen seeds, that time is now. For me, it means realizing that Arizona probably isn’t strong enough – which is to say big enough – to fend off a very good Florida team. In 2005, a really solid year for Arizona basketball, I chose Illinois to beat Arizona in the Elite Eight, a choice that killed me almost as much as watching Illinois beat Arizona in the Elite Eight. Nothing can kill your bracket quicker than the blind love for a hometown team that isn’t as good as your local news is telling you. Just ask everyone who goes to Cincinnati.

Next, don’t be a hero. Unless you were actually a student at George Mason last year, you probably didn’t have them going all the way to the Final Four. Making big calls on small and mid-major teams will probably impress your friends if they actually hit, but you’re far worse off being scrutinized for dumb moves. I know hindsight is 20/20, but make smart moves and take chances where you actually think chances will pay off. Last year, I loved Gerry McNamara’s conference tournament more than anyone, but you knew after seeing Syracuse expel all their energy playing solid Big East teams they would come in weak against a surging and excited Bradley team. I went against my judgment and my boy McMoney (copyright Fatz 2004) and ended up picking Bradley for the upset.
Like Bradley, most big runs by small teams usually end in the Sweet Sixteen. Teams that upset in the first round can carry the emotion and energy from a Thursday/Friday game all the way through the first weekend, but after that the team has a solid week to over think their next game while they wait for their sweet sixteen opponent … usually a power team from a power conference. That week also gives the power team time to gather game tapes, find out how to beat them, and adjust for the coming game.
Still, since the first weekend is usually the one that makes or breaks a bracket, you have to make sure to take some chances and pick some upsets. Pick a number of them if you have to, just not too many. Know that there will usually a twelve beating a five – there has been for the past six years – and remember that a sixteen has never beaten a one seed. For the eight-nine games, pick the standard big schools with bad years that get relegated to this spot, specifically Arizona, Kentucky, and Marquette this year. Outside of those games, the danger seeds this year for the first couple rounds include Holy Cross (13), Louisville (6), Marquette (8), George Washington (11), and possibly Winthrop (11).
Another big stat everyone will throw out there is that the top four seeds have never made it to the Final Four together, although they were really close in ’97 and ’99. Similar to small teams getting knocked out in the round of sixteen, this is when you’ll start to see cocky top seeds start to fall after a week of thinking they’re the kings of the court. Duke proved this in ’02 when a “can’t miss” team ran into some bad luck against an overrated Indiana team on a hot streak. Make sure you have a couple teams outside the one seeds, probably twos or threes. Unless you know something that Dick Vitale doesn’t, don’t have your champion be anything higher than a four.

On top of all this…CHECK THE STATS! If there is a really close game and you can’t seem to decide on a winner, there are three really important stats that you need to look at. First of all rebounds, specifically on the offensive side. Rebounds mean possessions and offensive rebounds mean second chance points. The team that rebounds will have more possessions, will take more shots, and more often then not will score more points. As John Madden says, “The team with more points is probably going to end up winning the game.” Obviously when comparing this stat, well-fed teams like Ohio St. and Georgetown tend to dominate the boards against much smaller teams. On the offensive side, there is nothing more uplifting than getting another look at the basket, spotting up for a three and widening the gap between you and your opponent.
Speaking of threes, anyone who watches college basketball knows that the three line is way (way, way, way) too close. Teams with three point threats absolutely dominate when they get hot, case in point, the unlikely run for Kevin Pittsnogle and West Virginia to the Elite Eight in ‘05 and Illinois’ impressive fourteen point comeback over Arizona the same weekend. For that reason, check out how the team and their starting five shoot threes and have that be a BIG factor when picking between two tough teams.
Lastly, blocked shots help keep opponents scores low, help keep scared point guards on the perimeter, and help kick off fast break scores at the other end. Offense may fill seats, but defense wins championships. Steals are important and not to be overlooked, but the inside presence that a blocking center provides can force a team who likes driving to take outside jumpers. Solid blocking teams this year are Kansas, who averages one block for every five defensive possessions, and Ohio St., who has Greg Oden (‘nough said).
If you don’t believe me, check out Georgia Tech’s run to the championship game in 2004. They were in an overrated region that included top overall seed Kentucky, Kansas, Gonzaga, and strong but young Boston College. If you look at their stats, including those listed above, you’ll see that they should have been far and away the favorite in that region. They might have gotten a little help from UAB and Nevada, but overall, these stats are what separate the Final Four from the other sixty-one teams watching at home. Trust me.

Finally, there are a number of X-Factors to keep in mind when filling out your bracket and picking your teams. I will list them so they’re easy and accessible when going back and forth between this page and your ESPN bracket.

1. Never pick a five to win it all. They are the most often high seed to be upset in the first round and have never, ever won the tournament.

2. Beware the whitewash (copyright Bill Simmons 2004). Good teams that successfully field five white guys in their first eight never go to the Final Four. With that said, watch out for Wisconsin.

3. Make sure at least three of your Final Four have a big name player. Oden, Noah, Wright, Green, Hibbert, and Hansborough. There is a reason they are household names, they are good players on good teams.

4. Watch the freshman on your teams. Can they handle the stress of being put on the free-throw line with a one-point lead and twenty seconds to go? If not, watch out.

5. Speaking of Freshman, Kevin Durant CANNOT carry Texas all the way. No matter what ESPN is saying every second of every day, trust me. He doesn’t have the supporting cast.


With that said, have fun, drink a lot, and watch more basketball than your significant other thinks is healthy for your relationship. I’m personally taking Thursday and Friday off work to watch with my boys at the Tacuba house, but I’ll be keeping a running diary as the games are going and post each night.

May your brackets be healthy and your TV be large. Enjoy.

- Kitchen