"The City" Fights On...

Sports writers are funny people. Two weeks ago, when the playoff picture was becoming a little clearer and they were all forced to make their post season predictions for the long run into the finals, most looked ready to hand the trophy over to the Mavs and call it a day. Now two weeks later, the stories are different. Sunday’s surprising upset sent them searching for their laptops to write what they thought was the story of the day.

“Can the Mavs recover? Do they even have a chance at beating the Warriors?”

What? How do you say that about the defending Western Conference Champions who are better this year than last? They have the MVP favorite in Dirk Nowitzki, the coach of the year in Avery Johnson, a very convincing Scottie Pippen look alike in Josh Howard, and one of the best supporting casts in basketball. The Warriors on the other hand look vaguely like a playground basketball team picking last. They have a number of good players and a lot of raw talent, but nothing outside of Stephen Jackson pulling a gun while driving the lane is going to scare your standard playoff team.

On Sunday I wanted to shout out “Yes, of course they can. Why would anyone be afraid of the Warriors?” On Monday though, I became a sportswriter.

Don’t get me wrong; I would be dumbfounded if the Mavs ended up losing but just like you can’t count them out of the series, your sure can’t count on them to win. Now more then ever, sports refuses to be black and white - the truth lies on a gray scale in between. You have to logically look at the stats, the teams, the history and the psychology if you want to pick your winner. As always, I do my best.

For the Mavericks it comes down to a few key factors. First, the Golden State Warriors are a team in the purest sense of the word. No stars, different guys making stand out plays every night, ball players. They score at will and pass as well as any team other than Phoenix. The Warriors force your defensive game to change every night because you can’t watch tape on a team that plays their style of jungle ball. They can drive if they want or they can kick and shoot. It makes it very difficult to guard their talent, size, and athleticism both inside and out.

It also doesn’t help that Warriors coach Don Nelson was the Mavericks coach and Avery Johnson’s mentor for years. He knows the team better than his own and Johnson as well as anyone. Why do you think Dirk was so ineffective on Sunday? Because Nelson taught him everything he knows. He has the weaknesses and strengths stored and can exploit them at will. Once again, this forces Dallas to change game plans, refocus the offense, and try something new. Not what you want to be doing in the 83rd game of the season.

Lastly, the Mavericks have no one to put on Baron Davis. On Sunday they switched the line up to start Devean George for a size advantage. Not only is this a defensive liability in itself since George runs like Dick Bavetta, but that limits the offense by leaving Devin Harris on the bench. No matter how they move the line up around, they’ll have holes in their defense and obvious mismatches all over the court. They’re once again forced to change an aspect of their championship game plan. You just shouldn’t have to do that when you’re the best team in the league.

I know, I know, “So why is Golden State an eight seed?” Not counting the fact that they were saddled with Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy, the Warriors are young and careless team and when they get down they get discouraged. They may play some of the most exciting basketball in the NBA, but when all is said and done, their immaturity is their biggest weakness. Much like Phoenix, their defense is their offense and that allows teams to get back into games quickly when the shooters go cold.

If you give them a solid big man and two years together playing like a team, you’ll be looking at a team that could and will terrify any of the West’s big three. For now though, you’re looking at a team that has a shot to do something special.

The NBA Playoffs... Thank God they're long...